The Energy Strategist

Unless an economic disaster takes place between now and the end of the year, China will deliver growth closer to 8 than 7 percent, and India should be able to register something close to 6 percent.

The US recession, the deepest since WWII, should end at some point this summer. From our current vantage point, it appears that the prospects for global growth aren't as dour as many analysts predicted at the beginning of the year.

For the past seven years India has been one of the most exciting stories among emerging markets in general and Asia in particular. Although India has never exhibited the same growth characteristics as the rest of Asia and can't match China's reported growth rates, it has largely avoided the boom-and-bust cycles that afflict the region's developing economies. And despite all the negative economic news this year, in the first quarter Indian real GDP increased 5.8 percent from a year ago, an impressive result that suggests the economy remains on sound footing.

China was never expected to be instrumental in helping economies avoid recession, contrary to an idea floated by people not well informed regarding the Chinese economy. What China could contemplate--and is in fact now doing--was to make sure its own economy would do well while contributing as much as possible to the avoidance of a total collapse of the financial system and the world economy.

Asian markets could easily rise another 10 to 15 percent from current levels by year’s end. The expectations for global economic recovery and the inflationary efforts by monetary authorities around the world support the investment case for the region.